By Komfie Manalo
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort said in a statement that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is forecasted to cut policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) despite the inflationary impact of the recent Syper Typhoon Carina, with the expected increase in government spending and remittances of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).
"The widely expected -0.25 (bps) local policy rate cut as early as August 15, 2024, or more than two weeks from now, remains possible, especially if inflation stays well within the 2%-4% inflation target, especially in the coming month," he said.
According to Ricaford, commodities prices, particularly in hard-hit areas, might see a temporary uptick "until logistics normalize."
"Also, given some damage to agriculture that could lead to some temporary spike in vegetable [and] other produce prices that could lead to some transitory pickup in food prices," Ricafort added.
Last week, Super Typhoon Carina and the enhanced southwest monsoon caused massive flooding in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
The Department of Agriculture estimated the damage to the agriculture sector at P696.87 million as of July 28.
However, Ricafort said the price freeze would temper price increases in areas declared under a state of calamity.
Headline inflation already eased to 3.7 percent in June from 3.9 percent in May.
Ricafort said there could be a temporary 0.5 percentage point to 1 percent increase in inflation from July to August due to Super Typhoon Carina, similar to the uptick observed during Typhoon Ulysses in November 2020 and Typhoon Ondoy in September 2009.
"Though [this will be] offset by the effective 20 percent reduction in imported rice prices that could lead to lower local rice prices, which account for about nine percent of the inflation index," he said.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said interest rates could be cut by 25 bps as early as August.
"On the balance, inflation could remain within the 2%-4% target for the coming months," Ricafort said.
Meanwhile, Ricafort said remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and government spending might increase in the coming months due to the rehabilitation of areas hit by Super Typhoon Carina.
"Interestingly, there could also be some increase in OFW remittances and conversion to pesos, some borrowings, additional spending by businesses and other institutions, and also increased government spending to help finance the rehabilitation of homes, equipment, businesses, [and] other facilities, infrastructure, among others, in hard-hit areas," he said.
"Ironically, these would spur additional business and overall economic activities to offset disruptions and resulting damage at the height of the typhoon," Ricafort added.
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