TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Hurricane Helene is now predicted to reach Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, part of a frightening forecast of 130-mph winds and high storm surge that brings a dire scenario for hundreds of miles of the state's coast as entire communities are forced to flee.
Helene reached hurricane status Wednesday and was forecast to grow more powerful and dangerous before making landfall Thursday evening on Florida's Gulf Coast as a devastating Category 4 storm, up from an expectation earlier Wednesday that it would arrive as a Category 3 hurricane.
"Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians," the National Hurricane Center said.
The NHC warned that "a catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves.''
This is the “worst case for the Tallahassee region and Big Bend of Florida,” said Craig Fugate, former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “Storm surge will most likely set records along the coast.”
The highest landfall probability is somewhere along the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle − possibly the Big Bend area, the curve of Florida's peninsula around the Gulf of Mexico − late Thursday, AccuWeather forecasters said. Near where Helene makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is expected, with 2 feet of rain possible in isolated areas.
The hurricane center warned in a 1 a.m. CDT update that Helene will bring catastrophic winds and storm surge to the northeastern Gulf Coast and that "preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."
Developments:
∎ Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Hurricane Helene's impacts later this week. The current track forecasts the center of the storm west of Virginia, but Youngkin said some parts of the state could see significant rainfall and flooding from outer bands of Helene.
∎ Tampa International Airport said it will suspend operations at 2 a.m. Thursday because of the hurricane. The airport plans to reopen "when safe to do so." The smaller, nearby St. Pete-Clearwater Airport will be closed Thursday and is scheduled to reopen Friday, according to its website. Orlando International Airport said on X that it remains open but some flights could be delayed or canceled for weather-related reasons.
∎ While U.S. flights weren't seeing a major impact early Wednesday, 12% of flights to Cancun, Mexico, had been canceled and another 16% delayed as of 1:30 p.m. ET, according to online flight tracker FlightAware. Elsewhere, airlines have issued travel waivers, allowing customers to rebook flights along the hurricane's path without penalties, though cities, dates and terms vary widely. Details here.
∎ The Tampa Zoo said it will close its door to the public Thursday and take measures to protect the animals from the approaching hurricane.
∎ The University of Florida cancelled classes for Thursday, joining Florida State and Florida A&M universities, whose closures will last through the weekend.
∎ Helene is the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, about the average number for the date, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. A typical season sees a total of seven hurricanes. If it lands as a Category 3 storm, this would be fifth consecutive year a major hurricane hits the U.S. mainland, which has only happened once before, Klotzbach said.
Helene's explosive forecast one of the 'most aggressive' in hurricane history
Flooding danger hundreds of miles inland, NOAA warns
Helene's projected impact is so vast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration took the rare step Wednesday of reaching out to news organizations to emphasize how much damage the hurricane figures to cause in inland locations well beyond the Florida Gulf Coast.
NOAA pointed out Helene's wind fields extend up to 275 miles from its core, warning communities in the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia to prepare for "catastrophic, life-threatening inland flooding.'' Urban areas in Helene's path, such as Tallahassee, Florida, and Atlanta − separated by more than 200 miles − along with Asheville, North Carolina, are at risk of major flooding, NOAA said.
"Even well before landfall, heavy rainfall will begin in portions of the southeastern United States and will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, where storm total rainfall amounts are forecast to be up to 18 inches,'' NOAA said in a news release.
Helene's core avoids Yucatan and may get stronger, scientist says
It appears the center of Helene is staying over open water and not hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, according to Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanic Meteorological Laboratory.
By staying over the water and not moving over land, the storm's core will be able to come together unimpeded, Hazelton posted on X. "The stage is being set such that the higher-end intensity outcomes are possible depending on structure,'' he said.
Millions under storm warnings in Southeast
More than 42 million people in Florida, Georgia and Alabama were under hurricane and tropical storm warnings, the National Weather Service said.
Helene could also become Tallahassee's worst wind event in recorded history as 100 mph winds blast the Florida capital. Ryan Truchelut, founder of WeatherTiger and a hurricane forecaster for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, said Helene is a storm without precedent.
"Helene stands toe-to-toe with any of the threats that Florida has faced over the past 10 years or indeed really over hurricane history," Truchelut said.
A month ago, Jody Griffis rode out Hurricane Debby in his Cedar Island home along the Big Bend coast. But as he secured his stilt home with shutters and siding Wednesday, he told USA TODAY he will heed the local evacuation order issued ahead of Helene.
“My gut is telling me to get out,” he said.
Possibility of 8-10-foot storm surge 'scares me,' bar owner says
In coastal Steinhatchee, a Big Bend town in Taylor County, Crabbie Dad’s bar owner Scott Peters supervised a crew loading beer, coolers and liquor into trucks Wednesday, moving it all to safety further inland.Peters, 46, said the storms that have hit the bar he’s owned for 19 years seem to keep getting stronger each season. The bar sits about 100 feet across First Avenue from where the Steinhatchee River empties into Deadman Bay.“We’re taking everything I can lift and move and things I didn’t take out last time that I learned a lesson from,” said Peters. “You take every storm as serious as you can because this is such a low-lying area. We’re basically at sea level.”As he spoke, a county emergency alert sounded on nearby cell phones, warning of dangerous storm surge and cautioning people to have three days of supplies on hand before the storm hits Thursday evening.Peters said he's worried that because Helene gained strength so rapidly, it may propel a huge storm surge toward shore. He said growing up in the area people used to have hurricane parties and ride out storms. But the recent string of more powerful hurricanes has convinced him that’s no longer a good idea.“If this thing comes in and goes over us as fast as they’re saying, we could get 8-10 feet of water. That’s what scares me,” Peters said. “The thing’s coming so damn fast we didn’t have time to prepare much.”
Packing up, hoping massive storm turns away
In Keaton Beach, about 65 miles southeast of Tallahassee, Mike Kicklighter lifted himself up with a piece of construction equipment so he could attach a remote camera to a telephone pole on his now-empty waterfront lot.
Kicklighter, 47, lives in Georgia and normally keeps a mobile home on the sandy lot but hauled it away for safety. His neighbor’s house sits on concrete pillars more than 20 feet tall.
“I want to watch your house fall,” he joked to his neighbor as he tightened the strap holding the camera. In all seriousness, he said, they are closely watching the storm’s track, hoping it passes further west.
“We’re all pitched to roll out,“ Kicklighter said Wednesday as they finished up packing and prepared to load an ice maker into the bed of a pickup. “The biggest worry was the surge, but we might have done all of this for nothing. I hope we did.”
− Trevor Hughes
What is rapid intensification and will it occur in Helene?
Rapid intensification is when a hurricane’s winds accelerate by 35 mph or more within 24 hours. Computer models indicate a high chance Helene will experience rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, Robbie Berg, a specialist at the hurricane center, wrote in a Wednesday morning forecast.
Helene will be moving through an environment very conducive to intensification, with low wind shear and much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. While the official forecast predicts sustained winds up to 125 mph on Thursday, Berg said those winds could be stronger if Helene "rapidly intensifies more than forecast."
Big Bend resident: 'I don't know if my house can take it'
Griffis, 57, said he planned to leave with his wife for his brother’s house Thursday morning, likely after a long night of fortifying his own home.
“Everything that I have of value will go with me,” he said, describing family heirlooms and photo albums. “If this thing gets up to 135-140 miles an hour, I don't know if my house can take it.”
Steve Brown, 72, who lives just a few yards from the gulf in Cedar Island, spent the last 24 hours moving outdoor furniture into his home, which sits on stilts 21 feet above sea level.
Under a countywide evacuation, he plans to leave with his wife, Cindy, and their cat, Max, to a friend’s home in the nearby city of Perry. “People around here are busy,” said the retired schoolteacher. “It's not a frenzy. Everybody's been through this before, so they have a plan and they're just executing it.”
Residents in southwest Florida brace for Helene
In Sarasota, Florida, hundreds of miles from where forecasters predict Hurricane Helene will come ashore, residents prepared for the storm Wednesday. Rick Munroe, owner of Sun Garden Cafe, brought in patio furniture and stacked sandbags in front of the doors. A long stretch of Florida’s coast, including western Sarasota, could be exposed to storm surge of up to 7 feet, according to forecasters.
"If you don't take them serious,” he said, speaking about hurricanes, “then you're foolish or you just moved here.”
Paul Samuel, a local general contractor, said many of his clients are similarly concerned about the hurricane. One homeowner had him move much of the furniture on the bottom floor of their home to the second floor. Samuel plans to wrap up several projects by the end of the day, including one that requires the installation of seven windows and doors before the winds and water pick up.
"It'll be airtight by tonight," Samuel said.
– Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Increased risk of tornadoes in Southeast on Thursday
Helene was centered about 425 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, on Wednesday at 11 p.m. ET, the hurricane center said. The storm was driving maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and moving north at 9 mph.
Tornadoes were possible late Wednesday on the western Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama, the hurricane center said. The risk of tornadoes expands Thursday across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Florida counties order evacuations ahead of Helene
At least 22 Florida counties have some form of evacuation order in effect.
Three counties in the Big Bend coast, where storm surge could reach heights of 15 feet, issued mandatory evacuation orders for all residents and visitors in its jurisdiction. Officials in Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor counties – home to about 69,000 people – warned residents of the danger posed by the storm and urged them to take it seriously.
“Hurricane Helene is predicted to be a catastrophic and life-threatening storm system,” the Taylor County Sheriff’s Office said on Facebook. “This system will be unlike anything we have experienced to date. A curfew is effective from sunset to sunrise. Repeat, this is a MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER for everyone.”
Leon County, home to Tallahassee, ordered the evacuation of residents from mobile and manufactured homes because of the threat of high winds. "Seek shelter no later than 8 a.m. Thursday," an emergency alert from the county read.
Seventeen other counties stretching across the western coast of the state, from the panhandle to just south of Sarasota, have announced mandatory or voluntary evacuations, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Across the state, officials announced closures of government offices and facilities as well as public schools and several major universities.
Helene forecast is a ‘nightmare' scenario for parts of North Florida
Rick Minor, a county commissioner in Leon County, urged residents to take the approaching storm seriously.
In an email to constituents Tuesday night, Minor said he was briefed by Leon County Emergency Management officials, who said that if the current track holds, the county will take a direct hit.
"On Thursday we'll face about six hours of sustained winds of 74-110 mph, leading to thousands of downed trees, more than a hundred blocked roads, hundreds of damaged structures, and many, many days of extended power outages," he said. "But we mustn't panic − fortunately, we all have enough time to carefully plan and prepare."
For those living in Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor counties, National Weather Service forecasters offered a grim wakeup call hours after emergency managers ordered all county residents to evacuate: "This forecast, if realized, is a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee Bay. Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously."
Island deluges will bring flood, landslide risks
The prediction of heavy inland rain from Hurricane Helene has triggered a rare "high risk" area for excessive rainfall Thursday for portions of the southern Appalachians, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center announced Wednesday.
The entire region was bracing for a deluge from Helene: "Overall, 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches is forecast over the Southeast," the prediction center said.
Because of the expected rain, "considerable" flash and urban flooding is forecast across portions of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians and the Tennessee Valley through Friday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is also likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible.
The rain will also increase the risk of landslides across the southern Appalachians, the Weather Prediction Center said.
− Doyle Rice
Will Helene hit Mexico and its beaches?
A hurricane warning was in effect for Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico, including Cozumel. Additionally, there was a tropical storm warning in effect for Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, the U.S. hurricane center said.
On the forecast track, the center of Helene was expected to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday and Thursday, according to the hurricane center.
Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4-8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches, bringing a "risk of considerable flooding," according to the hurricane center.
− Gabe Hauari
What is storm surge and what makes the Gulf vulnerable during Helene?
Along with powerful wind speeds and high rainfall amounts, another deadly hazard is a major concern for the western coast of Florida: storm surge.
In the open ocean, hurricane winds push water toward the center of the storm and instead of piling up, the water spirals downward and flows outward.
As the water is pushed downward, some is pushed out to sea and some is pushed toward the coast. As the storm approaches land and shallow water, the ocean floor blocks the outflowing water, causing the ocean to surge onto land.
Forecasters predict the Helene will wallop the Big Bend coast of Florida with a surge of water as high as 15 feet, while other coastal areas, such as Tampa Bay, could see 8 feet of water. The storm is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane as it churns over the warm waters of the Gulf.
Among the factors making coastal communities along the Gulf of Mexico more vulnerable to piling water is its continental shelves that extend well over 100 miles from the shore. On the Atlantic coast, narrower shelves with steep slopes produce a lower surge.
– Javier Zarracina, Ramon Padilla, Stephen J. Beard, Dinah Voyles Pulver
DeSantis urges Florida residents to prepare for Helene
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Floridians should prepare for a potential major hurricane after he expanded his state of emergency declaration to 61 counties.
"Right now you do have time, so take advantage of that time," DeSantis said. "Review your plan and make sure you’re executing your hurricane preparedness plan."
"Don’t get wedded to these cones. You could be out of the cone and still have major impacts."
Helene, expected to intensify rapidly, prompts hurricane warning for Florida Gulf Coast
Helene disrupts Gulf oil production
U.S. oil producers scrambled Monday to evacuate staff from Gulf of Mexico oil production platforms as the second hurricane in two weeks was predicted to tear through offshore oil-producing fields.
Oil companies BP, Chevron, and Shell have begun evacuating offshore staff, and several have paused some production. Just two weeks ago, Hurricane Francine roared across the Gulf of Mexico, peaking as a Category 2 with 100-mph winds as it made landfall in Louisiana.
Helene would be Florida's 9th major hurricane hit since 2000
The storm is forecast to become a major hurricane, a Category 4, before approaching the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said.
According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, eight major hurricanes have made landfall in Florida since 2000: Charley and Jeanne in 2004; Dennis and Wilma in 2005; Irma in 2017; Michael in 2018; Ian in 2022; Idalia in 2023.
Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY; William L. Hatfield, Tallahassee Democrat; Steve Patterson, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union; Kim Luciani USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida; Reuters
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Helene updates: Hurricane may hit Florida as Category 4
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