The Philippine tourism industry will sustain its growth momentum, with tourist arrivals forecasted to reach 6.6 million this year from five million in 2023 and exceed the 8.2 million visitors before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2025.
In a commentary released Monday, Fitch Solutions unit BMI projected a 32.6% increase in tourist arrivals this year.
"The 2024 arrivals will be at 81%of the pre-pandemic level in 2019 (8.2 million arrivals)," the report said. "We forecast the Philippines' arrivals to continue to increase over the remainder of our medium-term forecast period, fully recovering in 2025 as they reach 8.3 million, rising above the pre-pandemic level in 2019."
The significant influx of 1.6 million visitors in the first quarter of the year serves as a promising sign, indicating that the post-pandemic recovery of the Philippine tourism industry is well underway.
By 2028, the Philippines is expected to attract 9.4 million tourists, or growing by 14% annually from 2024 to 2028.
Steady growth in arrivals is expected to be propelled by key source markets in Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe, demonstrating the industry's ability to attract tourists from diverse regions.
In the first quarter of 2024, South Korea, the United States, China, Japan, and Australia were the top sources of foreign visitors.
"While we have a positive outlook for Philippines' arrivals, there are short-term risks stemming from high living costs in many markets globally, and tighter credit conditions which will weigh on consumer spending, particularly on nonessential categories such as travel," it added.
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