Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort said headline inflation in August likely eased to within the government's target of 2 to 4 percent, with the lowering of the rice tariff and the lower prices of major global commodities, including rice, contributing to the downtrend.
According to Ricafort, prices of goods likely decelerated to 3.8% last month from 4.4% in July.
"There could still be spillover effects on inflation by the Typhoon Carina and the recent habagat, but price freeze [is still] in effect in areas where the state of calamity was declared up to 60 days or until September 24, 2024," he said.
Ricafort said rice imports at a reduced tariff rate of 15 percent from 35 percent, on top of the lower world price of rice and other major global commodities, eased some of the pressures.
Ricafort said a relatively stronger peso versus the US dollar could also reduce import costs and overall inflation.
Ricafort said headline inflation may likely settle within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' target in the year's remaining months.
He said this could justify further BSP rate cuts, matching any future Fed rate cuts from 2024-2026 to maintain healthy interest rate differentials.
The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the August 2024 inflation data on Thursday.
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